BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Mockingbird In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Northern Rockies has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

-57%Since 1996TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Mockingbird has fallen sharply in Northern Rockies: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

Northern Mockingbird In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±207.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±207.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±207.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.10
20260.010.000.10
20270.000.000.09
20280.000.000.09
20290.000.000.09

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BaggsWYOMING62022
Rock SpringsWYOMING22022
MaybellCOLORADO12024
Great DivideCOLORADO12018
LayCOLORADO12024
Crane CreekIDAHO11997
EllistonMONTANA12007
GlenMONTANA12019
Willow Creek 2MONTANA12006
Clover CreekOREGON11991
RandolphUTAH12008
Neponset ResUTAH12000
OttoWYOMING12003
ErvayWYOMING12014
Sand DrawWYOMING12017
LamontWYOMING11998
Flamin GorgeWYOMING12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.