BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern House Wren In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalForest birds

Northern House Wren in Sierra Madre Occidental has surged: up 635% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+635%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has surged in Sierra Madre Occidental: up 635% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 225% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 2.8–9.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+225%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–9.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 225% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 2.8–9.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.82.49.2
20265.92.59.3
20276.02.69.4
20286.12.79.4
20296.12.89.5

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AlpineARIZONA632023
Mt. GrahamARIZONA572023
SprucedaleARIZONA322023
Aztec PeakARIZONA181978
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO142024
PrescottARIZONA132022
ReserveNEW-MEXICO132023
FlagstaffARIZONA122022
BlueARIZONA111991
Happy JackARIZONA102024
PortalARIZONA82024
WilliamsARIZONA22019
MaineARIZONA22019
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA22021
Carr MtnARIZONA22024
RuckerARIZONA22007
Mormon LakeARIZONA11975
San SimonARIZONA11979
PatagoniaARIZONA12004
SunizonaARIZONA11983
Forest LakesARIZONA11996
PinetopARIZONA12022
SahuaritaARIZONA12016
Sunizona 2ARIZONA12012
DragoonARIZONA12000

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.