BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern House Wren In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalForest birds

Northern House Wren in Sierra Madre Occidental has surged: up 635% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+635%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has surged in Sierra Madre Occidental: up 635% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Northern House Wren In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 225% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 2.8–9.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+225%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–9.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 225% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 2.8–9.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.82.49.2
20265.92.59.3
20276.02.69.4
20286.12.79.4
20296.12.89.5

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AlpineARIZONA632023
Mt. GrahamARIZONA572023
SprucedaleARIZONA322023
Aztec PeakARIZONA181978
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO142024
PrescottARIZONA132022
ReserveNEW-MEXICO132023
FlagstaffARIZONA122022
BlueARIZONA111991
Happy JackARIZONA102024
PortalARIZONA82024
WilliamsARIZONA22019
MaineARIZONA22019
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA22021
Carr MtnARIZONA22024
RuckerARIZONA22007
Mormon LakeARIZONA11975
San SimonARIZONA11979
PatagoniaARIZONA12004
SunizonaARIZONA11983
Forest LakesARIZONA11996
PinetopARIZONA12022
SahuaritaARIZONA12016
Sunizona 2ARIZONA12012
DragoonARIZONA12000

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.