BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern House Wren In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsForest birds

Northern House Wren in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has declined: down 31% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-31%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern House Wren in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. See the full index history below.

Northern House Wren In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 0.21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±237.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±237.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 0.21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±237.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.180.000.61
20270.170.000.61
20280.170.000.60
20290.170.000.60
20300.160.000.60

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Parker DamCALIFORNIA62003
PearblossomCALIFORNIA52025
OnyxCALIFORNIA32001
Jean LakeNEVADA32001
Kelso ValleyCALIFORNIA22019
Joshua TreeCALIFORNIA21991
WikieupARIZONA12010
Haiwee ResCALIFORNIA11993
Lucerne ValCALIFORNIA12024
Lone PineCALIFORNIA12025
Ash MeadowsNEVADA12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.