BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern House Wren In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaForest birds

Northern House Wren in Coastal California has increased: up 26% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+26%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
106Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern House Wren in Coastal California. See the full index history below.

Northern House Wren In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.3 (95% range 1.9–8.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-0%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–8.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.3 (95% range 1.9–8.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.31.98.7
20265.31.98.7
20275.31.98.7
20285.31.98.7
20295.31.98.7

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
White RiverCALIFORNIA801992
Cal Hot SpgsCALIFORNIA672019
Carmel ValCALIFORNIA352024
LockwoodCALIFORNIA352024
El ToroCALIFORNIA321999
Yokohl ValCALIFORNIA291997
Santa YnezCALIFORNIA282019
Lake SuccessCALIFORNIA281996
Mesa GrandeCALIFORNIA282024
Cuyamaca PkCALIFORNIA272024
JacksonCALIFORNIA211992
PowayCALIFORNIA201980
FallsvaleCALIFORNIA181981
Cleveland NfCALIFORNIA172018
Harbor Lake 2CALIFORNIA172024
Elsinore MtnCALIFORNIA162024
Cp. PendletonCALIFORNIA152003
Lake BerryessaCALIFORNIA142024
Foster ParkCALIFORNIA131994
Mt BaldyCALIFORNIA132024
Lake HemetCALIFORNIA101986
Bartlett SpsCALIFORNIA102018
South LakeCALIFORNIA102006
Cleveland Nf 2CALIFORNIA92022
Green ValleyCALIFORNIA82019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.