BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern House Wren In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Northern House Wren in Appalachian Mountains has held roughly steady: up 1% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+1%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
357Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern House Wren in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Northern House Wren In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.6 (95% range 3.4–7.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.4–7.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.6 (95% range 3.4–7.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.83.68.0
20275.83.58.0
20285.73.57.9
20295.73.57.9
20305.63.47.9

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt HopeNEW-YORK272010
DurhamNEW-YORK271976
SardisPENNSYLVANIA261974
WilliamsportMARYLAND252025
JenningsMARYLAND252025
DoverNEW-JERSEY252023
CobleskillNEW-YORK242023
MeadowbrookOHIO242021
Kemah LakeNEW-JERSEY222024
WestbrookvleNEW-YORK222019
SturgillsNORTH-CAROLINA222025
PortersvillePENNSYLVANIA221988
MiddletownPENNSYLVANIA222025
RamseysburgNEW-JERSEY212025
KeeneOHIO212023
PoyntellePENNSYLVANIA212025
RydePENNSYLVANIA212005
ScheafferstnPENNSYLVANIA212001
WarwickNEW-YORK201974
DrydenNEW-YORK202025
StonecreekOHIO202025
Mohican S.F.OHIO202025
SigelPENNSYLVANIA202025
N WashingtonPENNSYLVANIA202025
HonesdalePENNSYLVANIA202025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.