BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern House Wren In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Northern House Wren in Appalachian Mountains has held roughly steady: up 5% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+5%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
355Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern House Wren in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Northern House Wren In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.7 (95% range 3.4–7.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.4–7.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.7 (95% range 3.4–7.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.93.68.1
20265.83.68.1
20275.83.58.0
20285.73.58.0
20295.73.47.9

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SigelPENNSYLVANIA312024
Mt HopeNEW-YORK272010
DurhamNEW-YORK271976
SardisPENNSYLVANIA261974
WilliamsportMARYLAND252024
JenningsMARYLAND252024
DoverNEW-JERSEY252023
Mohican S.F.OHIO252024
RamseysburgNEW-JERSEY242024
CobleskillNEW-YORK242023
MeadowbrookOHIO242021
MiddletownPENNSYLVANIA242024
RamseyPENNSYLVANIA232023
Kemah LakeNEW-JERSEY222024
WestbrookvleNEW-YORK222019
DrydenNEW-YORK222024
CanadensisPENNSYLVANIA222024
PortersvillePENNSYLVANIA221988
BloomsburyNEW-JERSEY212024
KeeneOHIO212023
MillvillePENNSYLVANIA212024
RydePENNSYLVANIA212005
ScheafferstnPENNSYLVANIA212001
FinzelMARYLAND202024
WarwickNEW-YORK201974

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.