BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern House Wren In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Northern House Wren in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 124% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+124%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 124% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern House Wren In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 19 (95% range 16–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
16–2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 19 (95% range 16–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025181521
2026191621
2027191622
2028191622
2029191622

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fall RiverWISCONSIN552024
TrempealeauWISCONSIN482024
BrownsvilleWISCONSIN462024
KnappMINNESOTA392024
St StephenMINNESOTA382016
BeloitWISCONSIN352024
ViroquaWISCONSIN332024
PardeevilleWISCONSIN332024
EdenWISCONSIN322024
WhitewaterMINNESOTA312000
Wis RapidsWISCONSIN302023
Bell Oak 2MICHIGAN292023
Chatfield 2MINNESOTA282024
DresserWISCONSIN282024
N FreedomWISCONSIN282024
ParisWISCONSIN282024
FestinaIOWA272024
EvergreenMINNESOTA262024
Stevens PtWISCONSIN262023
Hazel GreenWISCONSIN262024
WiotaWISCONSIN262024
Omro 2WISCONSIN262024
HungerfordMICHIGAN252024
GrimmsWISCONSIN252021
HighlandWISCONSIN252024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.