BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern House Wren In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Northern House Wren in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 123% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+123%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 123% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern House Wren In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 19 (95% range 16–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
16–2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 19 (95% range 16–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026181621
2027191622
2028191622
2029191622
2030191622

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fall RiverWISCONSIN562025
WiotaWISCONSIN402025
MillvilleMINNESOTA382025
KnappMINNESOTA382025
PardeevilleWISCONSIN372025
FestinaIOWA352025
GreshamWISCONSIN352025
Hazel GreenWISCONSIN342025
ViroquaWISCONSIN332024
EdenWISCONSIN332025
BeloitWISCONSIN332025
N FreedomWISCONSIN322025
HighlandWISCONSIN322025
WhitewaterMINNESOTA312000
N AndoverWISCONSIN312025
Chatfield 2MINNESOTA302025
Wis RapidsWISCONSIN302023
KendallWISCONSIN302025
New LisbonWISCONSIN282025
MerideanWISCONSIN282025
TrempealeauWISCONSIN272025
Packertown 2INDIANA262025
CochraneWISCONSIN262025
Stevens PtWISCONSIN262023
Bell Oak 2MICHIGAN252025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.