BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern House Wren In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesForest birds

Northern House Wren in Oaks and Prairies has declined: down 49% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-49%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern House Wren in Oaks and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Northern House Wren In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.020.000.08
20240.020.000.08
20250.020.000.08
20260.020.000.07
20270.020.000.07

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HeyburnOKLAHOMA41999
Oak GroveTEXAS31987
BeggsOKLAHOMA22006
ChoctawOKLAHOMA22004
SkiatookOKLAHOMA22017
OakwoodTEXAS21986
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA12003
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA11995
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA12010
NobleOKLAHOMA12022
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA11997
TatumsOKLAHOMA12005
DuncanOKLAHOMA12001
Arenosa CrkTEXAS11971
Lone OakTEXAS12000
Peach CreekTEXAS11989
Miller GroveTEXAS11988
SadlerTEXAS12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.