BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern House Wren In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieForest birds

Northern House Wren in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has risen sharply: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+56%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
94Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has risen sharply in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern House Wren In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 6.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.7 (95% range 4.7–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.7–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 6.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.7 (95% range 4.7–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.54.611
20267.64.611
20277.64.611
20287.64.711
20297.74.711

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CovertKANSAS472024
BradyNEBRASKA452024
SurpriseNEBRASKA352024
Ash ValleyKANSAS292019
ChambersNEBRASKA292023
Red CloudNEBRASKA272024
HodgesKANSAS262014
HollenbergKANSAS242023
Jewell 2KANSAS242024
PetersburgNEBRASKA242023
AlbertKANSAS232024
KearneyNEBRASKA212024
HendleyNEBRASKA212024
St JohnKANSAS202019
GrayKANSAS202019
JamestownKANSAS192024
AlmeriaNEBRASKA192021
Berwyn 2NEBRASKA192021
BeloitKANSAS182003
BelvidereNEBRASKA182024
BoelusNEBRASKA182022
NenzelNEBRASKA162024
PhillipsburgKANSAS142022
TableNEBRASKA142024
Liberty 2NEBRASKA142007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.