BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern House Wren In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieForest birds

Northern House Wren in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+76%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
94Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern House Wren In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 8.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.8 (95% range 4.8–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.8–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 8.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.8 (95% range 4.8–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.74.711
20277.74.711
20287.74.811
20297.84.811
20307.84.811

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BradyNEBRASKA652025
SurpriseNEBRASKA422025
PhillipsburgKANSAS392025
CovertKANSAS342025
LoganKANSAS332025
HollenbergKANSAS292025
Ash ValleyKANSAS292019
ChambersNEBRASKA292025
AlbertKANSAS282025
Red CloudNEBRASKA272024
HodgesKANSAS262014
Jewell 2KANSAS232025
BassettNEBRASKA232025
NenzelNEBRASKA222025
St JohnKANSAS202019
GrayKANSAS202019
HanoverKANSAS192025
AlmeriaNEBRASKA192021
Berwyn 2NEBRASKA192025
BeloitKANSAS182003
PetersburgNEBRASKA182025
BoelusNEBRASKA182022
SumnerNEBRASKA162025
HendleyNEBRASKA162025
HamptonNEBRASKA162025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.