BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern House Wren In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieForest birds

Northern House Wren in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 127% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+127%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 127% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Northern House Wren In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 1.0–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 1.0–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.70.932.4
20261.70.952.4
20271.70.982.4
20281.71.02.4
20291.71.02.5

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA462024
ArsenalCOLORADO192015
Arsenal 2COLORADO192024
CrawfordNEBRASKA182024
ElbertCOLORADO172024
ChampionNEBRASKA82018
PaxtonNEBRASKA72016
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO61997
Hay SpringsNEBRASKA52024
BenkelmanNEBRASKA42022
Fort MorganCOLORADO32024
Doyle Bridge 2COLORADO32023
LeotiKANSAS32003
YoderWYOMING32024
LingleWYOMING32024
KiowaCOLORADO22018
Wildhorse LCOLORADO22024
CrowleyCOLORADO22023
Kiowa 2COLORADO22024
NunnCOLORADO22016
JulesburgCOLORADO22021
BennettCOLORADO22018
Prospect Valley 2COLORADO22021
RuletonKANSAS21991
PlymellKANSAS22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.