BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern House Wren In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieForest birds

Northern House Wren in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 183% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+183%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 183% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Northern House Wren In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 2.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 1.1–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 2.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 1.1–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.70.992.4
20271.71.02.5
20281.81.02.5
20291.81.12.5
20301.81.12.5

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA672025
CrawfordNEBRASKA272025
ArsenalCOLORADO192015
Arsenal 2COLORADO192025
Fort MorganCOLORADO102025
ChampionNEBRASKA82018
ElbertCOLORADO72025
PaxtonNEBRASKA72016
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO61997
DaltonNEBRASKA52025
BenkelmanNEBRASKA42025
Murray LakeNEBRASKA42025
Doyle Bridge 2COLORADO32023
LeotiKANSAS32003
Agate 2NEBRASKA32025
Hay SpringsNEBRASKA32025
LingleWYOMING32024
Pine BluffWYOMING32025
KiowaCOLORADO22018
CrowleyCOLORADO22023
Kiowa 2COLORADO22025
NunnCOLORADO22016
JulesburgCOLORADO22021
BennettCOLORADO22018
Prospect Valley 2COLORADO22021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.