BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern House Wren In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesForest birds

Northern House Wren in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 317% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+317%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
122Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 317% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern House Wren In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 5.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.1 (95% range 5.5–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.5–8.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 5.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.1 (95% range 5.5–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.85.28.3
20276.85.38.4
20286.95.48.4
20297.05.58.5
20307.15.58.6

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Reed PointMONTANA532025
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA502025
TobaccoNORTH-DAKOTA282019
HighwoodMONTANA272025
Custer 2MONTANA272025
ChamberlainSOUTH-DAKOTA262011
SeelyWYOMING242000
Lightning CrSOUTH-DAKOTA232025
DaytonWYOMING232025
CusterMONTANA212022
HazelrodtSOUTH-DAKOTA182025
WyarnoWYOMING182025
PromiseSOUTH-DAKOTA162011
ForsythMONTANA152023
BrandenbergMONTANA142025
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA142025
Chuffey SpringMONTANA132025
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA132025
CusterSOUTH-DAKOTA132025
RochfordSOUTH-DAKOTA132018
CrookstonNEBRASKA122025
SolenNORTH-DAKOTA122025
JordanMONTANA112024
French CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA112005
Maynard CouleeMONTANA102025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.