BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern House Wren In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesForest birds

Northern House Wren in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 318% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+318%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
120Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 318% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern House Wren In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 34% by 2029 — from 5.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.1 (95% range 5.5–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.5–8.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 34% by 2029 — from 5.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.1 (95% range 5.5–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.85.28.3
20266.85.38.4
20276.95.48.4
20287.05.58.5
20297.15.58.6

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Reed PointMONTANA522024
TobaccoNORTH-DAKOTA282019
BrandenbergMONTANA272019
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA272024
ChamberlainSOUTH-DAKOTA262011
Lightning CrSOUTH-DAKOTA252022
SeelyWYOMING242000
HighwoodMONTANA212024
CusterMONTANA212022
SavageMONTANA202021
HazelrodtSOUTH-DAKOTA202024
DaytonWYOMING182024
CrookstonNEBRASKA172024
PromiseSOUTH-DAKOTA162011
CusterSOUTH-DAKOTA162024
WyarnoWYOMING162024
ForsythMONTANA152023
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA142024
Custer 2MONTANA132024
RochfordSOUTH-DAKOTA132018
Maynard CouleeMONTANA122024
JordanMONTANA112024
SolenNORTH-DAKOTA112024
French CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA112005
Two DotMONTANA102024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.