BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern House Wren In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Northern House Wren in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 166% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+166%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
174Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 166% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Northern House Wren In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 32% by 2029 — from 4.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 4.1–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.1–7.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 32% by 2029 — from 4.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 4.1–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.63.97.3
20265.73.97.4
20275.74.07.4
20285.84.07.5
20295.84.17.5

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
YampaCOLORADO352023
Ragged Mtn.COLORADO352019
UncompahgreCOLORADO342024
Deadman Rd.COLORADO312024
Groundhog RsCOLORADO312024
Owl Creek PassCOLORADO262024
FlattopsCOLORADO232019
ThomasvilleCOLORADO192018
CebollaNEW-MEXICO192023
BeckUTAH191987
Dunckley PasCOLORADO182024
Ant Flat-Ogden CanUTAH182023
Lost Cr. ResUTAH182018
BufordCOLORADO172024
Gold HillCOLORADO172012
Dry ParkARIZONA152024
Pagosa SpgsCOLORADO151982
Fox CreekCOLORADO152024
Yellowjacket PassCOLORADO152024
Moon Lake 2UTAH152023
AspenCOLORADO142024
ParlinCOLORADO142023
Buffalo ParkCOLORADO142023
Navajo LakeUTAH142024
Beck 2UTAH142018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.