BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern House Wren In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Northern House Wren in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 163% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+163%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
175Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 163% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Northern House Wren In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 47% by 2030 — from 3.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 4.0–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+47%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.0–7.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 47% by 2030 — from 3.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 4.0–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.53.87.3
20275.63.87.3
20285.63.97.4
20295.73.97.4
20305.74.07.5

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
YampaCOLORADO352023
Deadman Rd.COLORADO332025
Gold Hill 2COLORADO252025
UncompahgreCOLORADO192025
FlattopsCOLORADO192025
CebollaNEW-MEXICO192023
BeckUTAH191987
GallinasNEW-MEXICO182025
Lost Cr. ResUTAH182018
TarryallCOLORADO172025
Gold HillCOLORADO172012
ParlinCOLORADO162025
AspenCOLORADO152025
Pagosa SpgsCOLORADO151982
Moon Lake 2UTAH152023
Blackhead PkCOLORADO142025
CokedaleCOLORADO142025
Douglas PassCOLORADO132024
Owl Creek PassCOLORADO132025
Cheesman LkCOLORADO122025
Wet Mtns.COLORADO122025
Comanche PkCOLORADO122024
Baxter PassCOLORADO122024
Dolores RivCOLORADO112025
Steamboat L.COLORADO112025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.