BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern House Wren In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaForest birds

Northern House Wren in Sierra Nevada has declined: down 38% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-38%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern House Wren in Sierra Nevada. See the full index history below.

Northern House Wren In Sierra Nevada Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 56% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.00–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+56%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 56% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.00–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.70.025.3
20272.70.005.3
20282.60.005.3
20292.60.005.3
20302.60.005.3

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GeneseeCALIFORNIA142024
Cottage SpgsCALIFORNIA71969
Greenhorn MtCALIFORNIA72008
Forest HillCALIFORNIA72025
PaxtonCALIFORNIA62025
Pollock PinesCALIFORNIA42025
ChilcootCALIFORNIA42024
DardanelleCALIFORNIA32019
Bass LakeCALIFORNIA32019
Silver CityCALIFORNIA32012
Kings CanyonCALIFORNIA32013
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA22025
JohnsvilleCALIFORNIA22025
Tuolumne GroveCALIFORNIA22025
SattleyCALIFORNIA22025
RivertonCALIFORNIA22023
Hat CreekCALIFORNIA22018
Tahoe NfCALIFORNIA21994
WawonaCALIFORNIA22025
Pine MountainCALIFORNIA22017
CrestviewCALIFORNIA22018
Last ChanceCALIFORNIA22017
WestvilleCALIFORNIA12023
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA12025
LumberyardCALIFORNIA12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.