BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern House Wren In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaForest birds

Northern House Wren in Sierra Nevada has declined: down 38% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-38%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern House Wren in Sierra Nevada. See the full index history below.

Northern House Wren In Sierra Nevada Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.04–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–5.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.04–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.80.115.4
20262.80.095.4
20272.70.075.4
20282.70.065.4
20292.70.045.4

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GeneseeCALIFORNIA142024
PaxtonCALIFORNIA102024
WawonaCALIFORNIA92024
Cottage SpgsCALIFORNIA71969
Greenhorn MtCALIFORNIA72008
Tuolumne GroveCALIFORNIA72024
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA52024
Forest HillCALIFORNIA42021
Pollock PinesCALIFORNIA42024
ChilcootCALIFORNIA42024
DardanelleCALIFORNIA32019
Bass LakeCALIFORNIA32019
JohnsvilleCALIFORNIA32024
Silver CityCALIFORNIA32012
Kings CanyonCALIFORNIA32013
SattleyCALIFORNIA32024
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA22024
RivertonCALIFORNIA22023
Hat CreekCALIFORNIA22018
Tahoe NfCALIFORNIA21994
Little TruckeeCALIFORNIA22023
Pine MountainCALIFORNIA22017
CrestviewCALIFORNIA22018
Last ChanceCALIFORNIA22017
WestvilleCALIFORNIA12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.