BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern House Wren In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Northern House Wren in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 247% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+247%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
128Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 247% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern House Wren In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 47% by 2030 — from 5.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.46–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-47%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.46–4.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±69.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 47% by 2030 — from 5.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.46–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.70.424.9
20272.70.434.9
20282.70.444.9
20292.70.454.9
20302.70.464.9

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
New HartfordCONNECTICUT151987
FitzwilliamNEW-HAMPSHIRE152025
FletcherVERMONT152025
SheffieldMASSACHUSETTS142022
ConcordNEW-HAMPSHIRE122025
GaysvilleVERMONT122025
CornvilleMAINE112025
PittsfieldMASSACHUSETTS112016
MontereyMASSACHUSETTS112025
MarlowNEW-HAMPSHIRE112025
MiddlesexVERMONT112025
ChesterfieldMASSACHUSETTS102025
WalpoleNEW-HAMPSHIRE102025
Post MillsVERMONT102025
S WallingfrdVERMONT102022
W RutlandVERMONT102025
East HavenVERMONT102025
Turner 2MAINE92025
N OrangeMASSACHUSETTS92025
HopkintonNEW-HAMPSHIRE92025
WestbrookMAINE82024
GlenNEW-HAMPSHIRE82025
KasoagNEW-YORK82025
Carrying PlMAINE72025
PeterboroughNEW-HAMPSHIRE72025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.