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Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern House Wren In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Northern House Wren in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 250% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+250%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
128Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 250% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern House Wren In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 53% by 2029 — from 5.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.33–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-53%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.33–4.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±68.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 53% by 2029 — from 5.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.33–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.50.324.7
20262.50.324.7
20272.50.324.7
20282.50.334.7
20292.50.334.7

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KasoagNEW-YORK182024
ConcordNEW-HAMPSHIRE162024
New HartfordCONNECTICUT151987
SheffieldMASSACHUSETTS142022
St JohnsburyVERMONT142024
CornvilleMAINE132024
N OrangeMASSACHUSETTS122024
FitzwilliamNEW-HAMPSHIRE122024
HopkintonNEW-HAMPSHIRE122024
MarlowNEW-HAMPSHIRE122024
FletcherVERMONT122024
PittsfieldMASSACHUSETTS112016
WalpoleNEW-HAMPSHIRE112024
S WallingfrdVERMONT102022
GlenNEW-HAMPSHIRE92024
Post MillsVERMONT92024
W RutlandVERMONT92024
WestbrookMAINE82024
CanterburyNEW-HAMPSHIRE82024
HighmarketNEW-YORK82024
DegrasseNEW-YORK82024
LandgroveVERMONT82024
Turner 2MAINE72024
DannemoraNEW-YORK72006
GreenwoodMAINE62024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.