BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern House Wren In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Northern House Wren in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has risen sharply: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+63%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern House Wren has risen sharply in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern House Wren In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 9.4–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.4–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 9.4–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025139.317
2026139.317
2027139.417
2028139.417
2029139.417

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA362023
DuanesburgNEW-YORK352024
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK302024
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK302024
PenfieldNEW-YORK282024
PittsfieldOHIO282024
Canadice LNEW-YORK262024
NaplesNEW-YORK262024
LattasburgOHIO252024
LucerneOHIO242024
Valley CityOHIO232024
CastileNEW-YORK212024
CayugaNEW-YORK202024
HamburgNEW-YORK202024
ParishvilleNEW-YORK202024
Grand IsleVERMONT202024
N Victory 2NEW-YORK192021
WatertownNEW-YORK192012
North EastonNEW-YORK192024
HiramOHIO192021
N VictoryNEW-YORK181972
RhinebeckNEW-YORK172024
SheridanNEW-YORK172024
PulaskiNEW-YORK172024
OgdensburgNEW-YORK172024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.