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Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern House Wren In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Northern House Wren in Boreal Hardwood Transition has edged down: down 11% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-11%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
116Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern House Wren in Boreal Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Northern House Wren In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 4.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.2–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–3.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern House Wren in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 4.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.2–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.61.33.9
20262.61.33.9
20272.61.23.9
20282.51.23.9
20292.51.23.8

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Northern House Wren in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GreenbushMINNESOTA282024
LudeMINNESOTA222023
Washington IWISCONSIN222024
Wigwam BayMINNESOTA152023
Lake CityMICHIGAN142022
BrainerdMINNESOTA142024
GilmanWISCONSIN142024
WausaukeeWISCONSIN142024
HarriettaMICHIGAN132024
DebsMINNESOTA132024
Maple GroveMICHIGAN112024
Crystal FlsMICHIGAN102024
BemidjiMINNESOTA101980
Iron RiverWISCONSIN102024
RiggsvilleMICHIGAN92019
WilsonMICHIGAN72010
Sand LakeMICHIGAN72024
Pine RiverMINNESOTA72024
BayfieldWISCONSIN72024
Rib LakeWISCONSIN72024
IrmaWISCONSIN72024
Amnicon FallsWISCONSIN72024
IshpemingMICHIGAN62023
CunardMICHIGAN62021
Bear LakeMICHIGAN62024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.