Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Harrier In Appalachian Mountains

Northern Harrier in Appalachian Mountains has declined: down 49% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-49%Since 1969
60Routes In Region
50Years

Notable Signals

No notable trend signals for Northern Harrier in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Harrier in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±141.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028
0.01Projected 2028 index
0.000.0495% range
±141.2%Backtest error
19672028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20240.010.000.04
20250.010.000.04
20260.010.000.04
20270.010.000.04
20280.010.000.04

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Northern Harrier in Appalachian Mountains.
GainesvilleNEW-YORK31997
DrydenNEW-YORK22022
CentervilleNEW-YORK21991
Swain 2NEW-YORK22023
WintersetOHIO21967
SheloctaPENNSYLVANIA22017
RydePENNSYLVANIA21992
Kehoe 2KENTUCKY12013
WilliamsportMARYLAND12008
CooperstownNEW-YORK11969
MeridaleNEW-YORK11995
OneontaNEW-YORK11969
OxfordNEW-YORK11974
Vestal CtrNEW-YORK12013
Phillips CrNEW-YORK12013
SwainNEW-YORK12002
East JavaNEW-YORK11987
Oxford 2NEW-YORK12003
DresdenOHIO12001
CumberlandOHIO11979
StonecreekOHIO12002
BirminghamOHIO12011
PetersburgOHIO11999
KeeneOHIO12002
SigelPENNSYLVANIA11995

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.