BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in Gulf Coastal Prairie has risen sharply: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+61%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has risen sharply in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Cardinal In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 44 in 2024 to a central estimate of 50 (95% range 37–63). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
37–6395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 44 in 2024 to a central estimate of 50 (95% range 37–63). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025483562
2026493562
2027493662
2028503663
2029503763

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
McfaddinTEXAS2072016
Moon Lake 2TEXAS1382024
Hinkles FerTEXAS1092024
Goliad PrairieTEXAS1012016
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA952019
Moon LakeTEXAS952011
LafitteLOUISIANA901991
MamouLOUISIANA721982
Vinton 2LOUISIANA672024
JuniorLOUISIANA651991
MauriceLOUISIANA652024
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA642024
Rock IslandTEXAS552024
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS542024
Oyster LakeTEXAS532024
GlencoeLOUISIANA512018
EstherLOUISIANA502024
KatyTEXAS472024
ChinquapinTEXAS472024
San PedroTEXAS432023
Port AcresTEXAS412024
VintonLOUISIANA392009
VanderbiltTEXAS381976
KaplanLOUISIANA332023
RichardLOUISIANA332024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.