BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in Gulf Coastal Prairie has risen sharply: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+61%Since 1969
47Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Northern Cardinal has risen sharply in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 44 in 2024 to a central estimate of 50 (95% range 37–63). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2029
50Projected 2029 index
37–6395% range
±28%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
2025483562
2026493562
2027493662
2028503663
2029503763

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
McfaddinTEXAS2072016
Moon Lake 2TEXAS1382024
Hinkles FerTEXAS1092024
Goliad PrairieTEXAS1012016
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA952019
Moon LakeTEXAS952011
LafitteLOUISIANA901991
MamouLOUISIANA721982
Vinton 2LOUISIANA672024
JuniorLOUISIANA651991
MauriceLOUISIANA652024
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA642024
Rock IslandTEXAS552024
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS542024
Oyster LakeTEXAS532024
GlencoeLOUISIANA512018
EstherLOUISIANA502024
KatyTEXAS472024
ChinquapinTEXAS472024
San PedroTEXAS432023
Port AcresTEXAS412024
VintonLOUISIANA392009
VanderbiltTEXAS381976
KaplanLOUISIANA332023
RichardLOUISIANA332024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.