BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Cardinal In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieForest birds

Northern Cardinal in Gulf Coastal Prairie has risen sharply: up 65% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+65%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has risen sharply in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 65% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Cardinal In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 40 in 2025 to a central estimate of 50 (95% range 36–63). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
36–6395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 40 in 2025 to a central estimate of 50 (95% range 36–63). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026483562
2027493562
2028493562
2029493663
2030503663

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
McfaddinTEXAS2072016
Moon Lake 2TEXAS1242025
Goliad PrairieTEXAS1012016
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA952019
Moon LakeTEXAS952011
LafitteLOUISIANA901991
Hinkles FerTEXAS842025
MamouLOUISIANA721982
JuniorLOUISIANA651991
MauriceLOUISIANA652024
Vinton 2LOUISIANA622025
Rock IslandTEXAS622025
EstherLOUISIANA592025
GlencoeLOUISIANA512018
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA502025
Port AcresTEXAS502025
KatyTEXAS482025
Bayside 3TEXAS412025
VintonLOUISIANA392009
Forked IslandLOUISIANA382025
VanderbiltTEXAS381976
Oyster LakeTEXAS372025
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS352025
KaplanLOUISIANA332023
DanburyTEXAS322025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.