BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in Chihuahuan Desert has surged: up 335% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+335%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has surged in Chihuahuan Desert: up 335% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Cardinal In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 5.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 1.8–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–6.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 5.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 1.8–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.01.66.4
20264.01.66.4
20274.11.76.5
20284.11.76.5
20294.21.86.6

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Devils R CynTEXAS382024
GirvinTEXAS282024
ComstockTEXAS252023
PumpvilleTEXAS242024
OzonaTEXAS212022
Black GapTEXAS172023
LongfellowTEXAS142024
Ft. StocktonTEXAS132024
Red RockNEW-MEXICO102024
Chisos BasinTEXAS62024
LangtryTEXAS52000
CastolonTEXAS42024
Dove Mtn.TEXAS42006
MarathonTEXAS42023
Ft. DavisTEXAS42023
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO32023
Casa PiedraTEXAS32023
Bear MtnTEXAS32024
PresidioTEXAS32023
AltudaTEXAS22021
ToyahvaleTEXAS22024
RoswellNEW-MEXICO12018
Hot SpringsTEXAS12024
ShafterTEXAS11973
Coyanda DrawTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.