BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in Chihuahuan Desert has surged: up 335% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+335%Since 1969
27Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Northern Cardinal has surged in Chihuahuan Desert: up 335% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 5.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 1.8–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2029
4.2Projected 2029 index
1.8–6.695% range
±27.2%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20254.01.66.4
20264.01.66.4
20274.11.76.5
20284.11.76.5
20294.21.86.6

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Chihuahuan Desert.
Devils R CynTEXAS382024
GirvinTEXAS282024
ComstockTEXAS252023
PumpvilleTEXAS242024
OzonaTEXAS212022
Black GapTEXAS172023
LongfellowTEXAS142024
Ft. StocktonTEXAS132024
Red RockNEW-MEXICO102024
Chisos BasinTEXAS62024
LangtryTEXAS52000
CastolonTEXAS42024
Dove Mtn.TEXAS42006
MarathonTEXAS42023
Ft. DavisTEXAS42023
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO32023
Casa PiedraTEXAS32023
Bear MtnTEXAS32024
PresidioTEXAS32023
AltudaTEXAS22021
ToyahvaleTEXAS22024
RoswellNEW-MEXICO12018
Hot SpringsTEXAS12024
ShafterTEXAS11973
Coyanda DrawTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.