BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Cardinal In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertForest birds

Northern Cardinal in Chihuahuan Desert has surged: up 434% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+434%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has surged in Chihuahuan Desert: up 434% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Cardinal In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 6.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 1.9–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–6.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 6.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 1.9–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.21.76.6
20274.21.86.6
20284.31.86.7
20294.31.96.7
20304.31.96.8

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Devils R CynTEXAS442025
LongfellowTEXAS392025
Ozona 2TEXAS312025
GirvinTEXAS282024
OzonaTEXAS212022
CastolonTEXAS202025
Hot SpringsTEXAS182025
ComstockTEXAS172025
Ft. DavisTEXAS122025
Chisos BasinTEXAS92025
ToyahvaleTEXAS62025
PumpvilleTEXAS62025
Red RockNEW-MEXICO52025
LangtryTEXAS52000
Ft. StocktonTEXAS42025
Dove Mtn.TEXAS42006
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO32023
Black GapTEXAS32025
Casa PiedraTEXAS32023
PresidioTEXAS32023
Coyanda DrawTEXAS32025
AltudaTEXAS22021
Bear MtnTEXAS22025
RoswellNEW-MEXICO12025
ShafterTEXAS11973

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.