BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Cardinal In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaForest birds

Northern Cardinal in Peninsular Florida has held roughly steady: down 9% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-9%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Cardinal in Peninsular Florida. See the full index history below.

Northern Cardinal In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 44 in 2025 to a central estimate of 38 (95% range 25–50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
25–5095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 44 in 2025 to a central estimate of 38 (95% range 25–50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026382550
2027382550
2028382550
2029382550
2030382550

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ScottsmoorFLORIDA892025
MabelFLORIDA772011
MicanopyFLORIDA761991
San AntonioFLORIDA762025
St LucieFLORIDA762025
Citrus ParkFLORIDA692025
BrowardFLORIDA661973
Island GroveFLORIDA662025
Ft MccoyFLORIDA652025
TamiamiFLORIDA631974
CroomFLORIDA632025
BelmoreFLORIDA612024
Indiantown 2FLORIDA592025
Mt. OliveFLORIDA592025
CorbettFLORIDA592025
GardnerFLORIDA581999
Sugarloaf KeyFLORIDA582004
Dupuis W.E.AFLORIDA562025
NobletonFLORIDA552025
Polk CityFLORIDA522025
Key LargoFLORIDA521991
Devils GardnFLORIDA502025
OcalaFLORIDA492025
Merritt Island 2FLORIDA492014
SebastianFLORIDA481992

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.