BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in Peninsular Florida has edged down: down 13% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-13%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Cardinal in Peninsular Florida. See the full index history below.

Northern Cardinal In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 37 (95% range 25–49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
25–4995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 37 (95% range 25–49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025372549
2026372549
2027372549
2028372549
2029372549

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ScottsmoorFLORIDA822024
MabelFLORIDA772011
NobletonFLORIDA772024
MicanopyFLORIDA761991
BrowardFLORIDA661973
St LucieFLORIDA662024
KenansvilleFLORIDA632024
TamiamiFLORIDA631974
Mt. OliveFLORIDA632024
BelmoreFLORIDA612024
CorbettFLORIDA592024
GardnerFLORIDA581999
Sugarloaf KeyFLORIDA582004
CroomFLORIDA572024
Island GroveFLORIDA562024
Citrus ParkFLORIDA552024
Dupuis W.E.AFLORIDA532024
Key LargoFLORIDA521991
Merritt Island 2FLORIDA492014
SebastianFLORIDA481992
St AugustineFLORIDA472024
Holey LandFLORIDA472024
Myakka HeadFLORIDA462011
Ft MccoyFLORIDA462024
Devils GardnFLORIDA462024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.