BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Cardinal In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Northern Cardinal in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has risen sharply: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+66%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
164Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has risen sharply in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Cardinal In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 35 (95% range 30–41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
30–4195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 35 (95% range 30–41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026342939
2027352940
2028353040
2029353040
2030353041

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Island CreekMARYLAND1322025
FredericaDELAWARE1032025
Pr FrederickMARYLAND1012025
BrocktonMASSACHUSETTS872019
Milton 2DELAWARE842025
Forest GroveMARYLAND802023
CokesburyMARYLAND792025
WillimanticCONNECTICUT722018
DavidsnvilleMARYLAND712025
MadisonMARYLAND702025
JessupMARYLAND702025
MillingtonMARYLAND682025
WarrenCONNECTICUT642011
Pedricktown 2NEW-JERSEY602025
White StoneVIRGINIA602025
HongaMARYLAND592025
PomonkeyMARYLAND572025
Port RoyalVIRGINIA552025
Severna ParkMARYLAND542011
PepperboxDELAWARE532016
LargoMARYLAND531981
MarionMASSACHUSETTS532025
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS532025
HolmansvilleNEW-JERSEY532009
Colonial PkyVIRGINIA531998

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.