BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has risen sharply: up 58% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+58%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
164Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has risen sharply in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 58% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Cardinal In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 35 (95% range 30–40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
30–4095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±3.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 35 (95% range 30–40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025342939
2026342939
2027342939
2028352940
2029353040

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Island CreekMARYLAND1252024
BrocktonMASSACHUSETTS872019
DavidsnvilleMARYLAND822024
Forest GroveMARYLAND802023
Pr FrederickMARYLAND762024
WillimanticCONNECTICUT722018
CokesburyMARYLAND692024
WarrenCONNECTICUT642011
MillingtonMARYLAND602024
ElktonMARYLAND572024
PomonkeyMARYLAND542024
EastonMARYLAND542021
Severna ParkMARYLAND542011
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS542024
PepperboxDELAWARE532016
LargoMARYLAND531981
HolmansvilleNEW-JERSEY532009
Port RoyalVIRGINIA532019
Colonial PkyVIRGINIA531998
Pedricktown 2NEW-JERSEY522024
Milton 2DELAWARE512017
MarionMASSACHUSETTS512024
HarringtonDELAWARE502024
HolleyvilleDELAWARE492004
St. George'S IslandMARYLAND492017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.