BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in Appalachian Mountains has edged up: up 21% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+21%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
403Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Cardinal in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Northern Cardinal In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 23 (95% range 20–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
20–2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 23 (95% range 20–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025232025
2026232026
2027232026
2028232026
2029232026

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
StaffordsvilKENTUCKY1581997
PaintsvilleKENTUCKY1281995
BrevardNORTH-CAROLINA1022024
WilliamsportMARYLAND922024
Corryton RdTENNESSEE862019
ShannonGEORGIA752019
Mt OliveTENNESSEE752024
WelchWEST-VIRGINIA742023
BirminghamOHIO722024
FincastleVIRGINIA682024
SardisPENNSYLVANIA661974
Nat TunnelVIRGINIA662024
RiversideALABAMA652013
DresdenOHIO652024
RockportWEST-VIRGINIA632024
OmegaOHIO622024
ClimerTENNESSEE622004
SmithfieldOHIO612024
DrummondALABAMA602024
BramwellWEST-VIRGINIA592023
StevensonALABAMA582024
Cumberlnd GpKENTUCKY582018
LinwoodGEORGIA572023
LovellTENNESSEE572019
MonongahWEST-VIRGINIA562022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.