BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Cardinal In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Northern Cardinal in Appalachian Mountains has edged up: up 21% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+21%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
404Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Cardinal in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Northern Cardinal In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 23 (95% range 21–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
21–2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 23 (95% range 21–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026232026
2027232026
2028232026
2029232126
2030232126

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
StaffordsvilKENTUCKY1581997
PaintsvilleKENTUCKY1281995
Nat TunnelVIRGINIA1052025
WilliamsportMARYLAND982025
BrevardNORTH-CAROLINA872025
Corryton RdTENNESSEE862019
FincastleVIRGINIA782025
RockportWEST-VIRGINIA762025
ShannonGEORGIA752019
Mt OliveTENNESSEE752024
BirminghamOHIO722024
SlateWEST-VIRGINIA692025
SardisPENNSYLVANIA661974
RiversideALABAMA652013
SmithfieldOHIO622025
OmegaOHIO622024
ClimerTENNESSEE622004
DrummondALABAMA602024
StevensonALABAMA582024
Cumberlnd GpKENTUCKY582018
LinwoodGEORGIA572023
LovellTENNESSEE572019
BlacksburgVIRGINIA572025
MonongahWEST-VIRGINIA562022
HubbardstownWEST-VIRGINIA552025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.