BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in Central Hardwoods has held roughly steady: down 1% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-1%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
166Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Cardinal in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Northern Cardinal In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 36 (95% range 31–41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
31–4195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 36 (95% range 31–41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025363141
2026363141
2027363141
2028363141
2029363141

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BelknapILLINOIS1062024
RoyaltonILLINOIS1022024
Sewell ShopKENTUCKY952023
BrownvilleILLINOIS892024
TrianaALABAMA822012
ElkmontALABAMA792024
WhitewaterMISSOURI792024
Belotes BendTENNESSEE772018
Trace LewisTENNESSEE742017
BoxvilleKENTUCKY721983
JoyKENTUCKY722023
WashingtonINDIANA712024
BremenILLINOIS702024
PulaskiMISSOURI682024
WoodlandvilleMISSOURI662024
PulaskiILLINOIS622024
Osage BeachMISSOURI612024
Valhermoso Spg 2ALABAMA602014
ScottsburgINDIANA602024
HillsboroALABAMA581996
GeorgiaINDIANA582024
RichlandMISSOURI582021
Brnt PrairieILLINOIS572024
MarshfieldMISSOURI562023
New PhilaINDIANA552024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.