BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Cardinal In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Northern Cardinal in Central Hardwoods has held roughly steady: down 0% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-0%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
166Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Cardinal in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Northern Cardinal In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 36 (95% range 31–41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
31–4195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 36 (95% range 31–41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026363141
2027363141
2028363141
2029363141
2030363141

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BelknapILLINOIS1032025
BrownvilleILLINOIS942025
Brnt PrairieILLINOIS862025
PulaskiMISSOURI852025
ElkmontALABAMA842025
TrianaALABAMA822012
Belotes BendTENNESSEE772018
ScottsburgINDIANA752025
WashingtonINDIANA742025
Trace LewisTENNESSEE742017
BoxvilleKENTUCKY721983
JoyKENTUCKY722023
Sewell ShopKENTUCKY682025
New PhilaINDIANA672025
ReedsMISSOURI672025
WhitewaterMISSOURI662025
Valhermoso Spg 2ALABAMA602014
HillsboroALABAMA581996
BremenILLINOIS582025
MarshfieldMISSOURI562023
Osage BeachMISSOURI562025
PeytonsvilleTENNESSEE562025
FarwellARKANSAS542018
LincolnMISSOURI542025
Wheeler DamALABAMA522025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.