BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 82% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+82%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
277Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 82% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Cardinal In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 26 (95% range 23–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
23–2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 26 (95% range 23–29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025252228
2026262329
2027262329
2028262329
2029262329

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HarveysburgOHIO991996
KeetonvilleOKLAHOMA992022
KingsvilleMISSOURI792024
PittsburgKANSAS782021
Mt VernonILLINOIS752024
WrefordKANSAS742024
AshleyOHIO742018
EmdenMISSOURI732024
MurdockNEBRASKA702024
Red RockIOWA692024
BelleviewILLINOIS682024
BucyrusKANSAS682024
MoselleMISSOURI682024
KearneyMISSOURI672024
Trading PostKANSAS642024
DarrtownOHIO632021
PeoriaOKLAHOMA632023
MiddletownINDIANA622024
MelroseKANSAS622023
MarionOHIO612023
MilfordMISSOURI602024
FrankfordMISSOURI592024
FrazierMISSOURI582024
OlatheKANSAS572021
GalesburgKANSAS552024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.