BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Cardinal In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesForest birds

Northern Cardinal in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 81% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+81%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 81% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Cardinal In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 71 in 2025 to a central estimate of 81 (95% range 67–95). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
81Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
67–9595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 71 in 2025 to a central estimate of 81 (95% range 67–95). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026786492
2027796593
2028806594
2029806695
2030816795

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SchroederTEXAS1591997
MuldoonTEXAS1492025
ChoctawOKLAHOMA1362023
Oak GroveTEXAS1331999
FanninTEXAS1302025
PaigeTEXAS1262025
BurtonTEXAS1182025
DecaturTEXAS1142024
RhomeTEXAS1132025
Oak Grove 2TEXAS1122025
Thornton 2TEXAS1102010
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA1072025
Arenosa CrkTEXAS972025
HobsonTEXAS962025
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA952025
Whit Mtn.TEXAS932019
CottonwoodTEXAS922025
LydiaTEXAS922025
YoakumTEXAS922025
Three RiversTEXAS912025
HearneTEXAS902025
TatumsOKLAHOMA862025
GauseTEXAS841997
Blue RidgeTEXAS832025
CarlosTEXAS822025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.