BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+76%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Cardinal In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 71 in 2024 to a central estimate of 81 (95% range 67–95). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
81Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
67–9595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 71 in 2024 to a central estimate of 81 (95% range 67–95). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025786392
2026796493
2027796594
2028806694
2029816795

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Arenosa CrkTEXAS1882024
MuldoonTEXAS1672024
SchroederTEXAS1591997
RhomeTEXAS1392024
ChoctawOKLAHOMA1362023
Oak GroveTEXAS1331999
BurtonTEXAS1312024
PaigeTEXAS1292024
HearneTEXAS1152024
DecaturTEXAS1142024
Oak Grove 2TEXAS1132024
Thornton 2TEXAS1102010
FanninTEXAS1102023
CottonwoodTEXAS1072024
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA982024
Three RiversTEXAS962024
Whit Mtn.TEXAS932019
GrafordTEXAS912019
TatumsOKLAHOMA902024
CarlosTEXAS902024
YoakumTEXAS892024
NobleOKLAHOMA872024
CayugaTEXAS872024
GauseTEXAS841997
Thornton 3TEXAS842024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.