BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in Edwards Plateau has increased: up 40% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+40%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Cardinal in Edwards Plateau. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Edwards Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 60 (95% range 47–73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
47–7395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Edwards Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 60 (95% range 47–73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025594572
2026594672
2027594673
2028604773
2029604773

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Allen CreekTEXAS812024
Valley SpgsTEXAS762024
PidcokeTEXAS742017
San SabaTEXAS712024
Pidcoke 2TEXAS712024
Indian MtnTEXAS682024
Dripping SpgTEXAS682024
HarperTEXAS662024
AdamsvilleTEXAS652024
LeanderTEXAS622006
KempnerTEXAS592024
LeakeyTEXAS502024
RockspringTEXAS502024
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS452024
UtopiaTEXAS402024
FitzhughTEXAS381983
GeorgetownTEXAS361985
BoerneTEXAS302024
MontellTEXAS252024
ManorTEXAS242024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.