BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 144% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+144%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 144% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Cardinal In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 20 (95% range 16–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
16–2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 20 (95% range 16–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025191523
2026191523
2027191523
2028201524
2029201624

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ft Sill WestOKLAHOMA1191994
WellingtonKANSAS1132024
DaltonKANSAS912024
Ft Sill EastOKLAHOMA831994
HawleyTEXAS822024
Wichita MtnsOKLAHOMA781994
Shields 2TEXAS782023
KanopolisKANSAS642024
WinchellTEXAS642024
VerdenOKLAHOMA602017
SilverTEXAS582024
Wichita Mtns EastOKLAHOMA462022
CashionOKLAHOMA422024
Wichita Mts WestOKLAHOMA412022
BuckeyeKANSAS392023
BerwetKANSAS362024
SicklesOKLAHOMA352021
Pear ValleyTEXAS342024
HanoverKANSAS322023
CovertKANSAS322024
ChesterOKLAHOMA311988
HunterOKLAHOMA312024
ColonyOKLAHOMA311995
PhrosoOKLAHOMA302024
CoopertonOKLAHOMA292024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.