BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 145% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+145%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 145% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Cardinal In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.47–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.47–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.47–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.00.431.6
20261.00.441.6
20271.00.451.6
20281.00.461.6
20291.10.471.6

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TildenNEBRASKA172024
PantherIOWA152024
CourtlandMINNESOTA142024
MccallsburgIOWA122024
WashingtonIOWA112024
SpartaNEBRASKA102021
ZearingIOWA51995
FairmontMINNESOTA52023
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA52024
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA52015
HuntleyMINNESOTA42024
MaynardMINNESOTA42015
MidwayNEBRASKA42023
MadisonNEBRASKA42019
Redwood FallMINNESOTA32015
FranklinMINNESOTA32024
WinsideNEBRASKA32003
Winside 2NEBRASKA32011
TitonkaIOWA22024
BurchinalIOWA22024
WorthingtonMINNESOTA22023
TracyMINNESOTA22024
Big StoneMINNESOTA22007
PoncaNEBRASKA22024
GeddesSOUTH-DAKOTA22018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.