BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Cardinal In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

Northern Cardinal in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 150% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+150%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Cardinal has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 150% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Cardinal In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 36% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.52–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-36%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.52–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 36% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.52–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.471.7
20271.10.481.7
20281.10.491.7
20291.10.511.7
20301.10.521.7

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PantherIOWA172025
TildenNEBRASKA162025
MccallsburgIOWA142025
MadisonNEBRASKA142025
WashingtonIOWA112025
CourtlandMINNESOTA102025
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA72025
ZearingIOWA51995
SpartaNEBRASKA52025
MidwayNEBRASKA52025
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA52015
TitonkaIOWA42025
MaynardMINNESOTA42015
FranklinMINNESOTA42025
PoncaNEBRASKA42025
Redwood FallMINNESOTA32015
WinsideNEBRASKA32003
Winside 2NEBRASKA32011
LennoxSOUTH-DAKOTA32025
TrippSOUTH-DAKOTA32025
ScrantonIOWA22025
ArlingtonMINNESOTA22025
AppletonMINNESOTA22025
FairmontMINNESOTA22025
WorthingtonMINNESOTA22023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.