BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Cardinal In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Northern Cardinal in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 145% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+145%Since 1969
47Routes In Region
56Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Northern Cardinal has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 145% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Cardinal in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.47–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2029
1.1Projected 2029 index
0.47–1.695% range
±57.5%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.00.431.6
20261.00.441.6
20271.00.451.6
20281.00.461.6
20291.10.471.6

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Northern Cardinal in Prairie Potholes.
TildenNEBRASKA172024
PantherIOWA152024
CourtlandMINNESOTA142024
MccallsburgIOWA122024
WashingtonIOWA112024
SpartaNEBRASKA102021
ZearingIOWA51995
FairmontMINNESOTA52023
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA52024
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA52015
HuntleyMINNESOTA42024
MaynardMINNESOTA42015
MidwayNEBRASKA42023
MadisonNEBRASKA42019
Redwood FallMINNESOTA32015
FranklinMINNESOTA32024
WinsideNEBRASKA32003
Winside 2NEBRASKA32011
TitonkaIOWA22024
BurchinalIOWA22024
WorthingtonMINNESOTA22023
TracyMINNESOTA22024
Big StoneMINNESOTA22007
PoncaNEBRASKA22024
GeddesSOUTH-DAKOTA22018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.