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Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Bobwhite In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyGame birds

Northern Bobwhite in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has collapsed: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-89%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Bobwhite has collapsed in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Bobwhite In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 3.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–7.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±279.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±279.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 3.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–7.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±279.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.007.8
20270.000.007.8
20280.000.007.8
20290.000.007.8
20300.000.007.8

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PawpawTENNESSEE342012
KennettMISSOURI332025
BrousvilleLOUISIANA202025
TchulaMISSISSIPPI161975
BlodgettMISSOURI142025
West TylerARKANSAS131984
KeystoneLOUISIANA122013
BardwellKENTUCKY112003
DeventerMISSOURI112025
CommerceMISSISSIPPI101993
FreetownLOUISIANA92019
Morgan CityLOUISIANA82022
SaffellARKANSAS72019
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI72025
WhittonARKANSAS61991
AugustaARKANSAS52001
DundeeMISSISSIPPI52022
ShelbyMISSISSIPPI52025
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI52025
HaytiMISSOURI52021
Port AllenLOUISIANA42024
HughesARKANSAS32025
DellARKANSAS32024
MoonMISSISSIPPI32018
TippoMISSISSIPPI32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.