BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Bobwhite In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyGrassland birds

Northern Bobwhite in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has collapsed: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-90%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Bobwhite has collapsed in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Bobwhite In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±268.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±268.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±268.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.007.6
20260.000.007.6
20270.000.007.6
20280.000.007.6
20290.000.007.6

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PawpawTENNESSEE342012
BrousvilleLOUISIANA302024
KennettMISSOURI242024
TchulaMISSISSIPPI161975
West TylerARKANSAS131984
BlodgettMISSOURI132024
KeystoneLOUISIANA122013
BardwellKENTUCKY112003
DeventerMISSOURI112024
CommerceMISSISSIPPI101993
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI102024
FreetownLOUISIANA92019
Pawpaw 2TENNESSEE92023
Morgan CityLOUISIANA82022
SaffellARKANSAS72019
WhittonARKANSAS61991
AugustaARKANSAS52001
DundeeMISSISSIPPI52022
ShelbyMISSISSIPPI52024
HaytiMISSOURI52021
Port AllenLOUISIANA42024
DellARKANSAS32024
MoonMISSISSIPPI32018
TippoMISSISSIPPI32024
Dahomey NwrMISSISSIPPI32019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.