BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Bobwhite In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasGrassland birds

Northern Bobwhite in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has collapsed: down 95% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-95%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
106Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Bobwhite has collapsed in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: down 95% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Bobwhite In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–8.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±544.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±544.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–8.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±544.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.008.0
20260.000.008.0
20270.000.008.0
20280.000.008.0
20290.000.008.0

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fort PolkLOUISIANA461975
ChathamLOUISIANA461975
PushmatahaOKLAHOMA402023
MatoyOKLAHOMA322000
SandbluffOKLAHOMA311995
PocolaOKLAHOMA252016
DerryLOUISIANA181989
McalesterOKLAHOMA171991
GoodwillLOUISIANA132012
PhillipsOKLAHOMA132008
IndianolaOKLAHOMA122024
CrowsARKANSAS111991
ManyLOUISIANA101992
HopeARKANSAS92000
BethelOKLAHOMA92024
RamseyARKANSAS81997
PoyenARKANSAS82007
PrincetonARKANSAS82021
NatchezLOUISIANA82024
NanceARKANSAS72024
Four LakesARKANSAS72001
CypressLOUISIANA71987
FillmoreLOUISIANA71989
Pine PrairieLOUISIANA71996
Hee MountainOKLAHOMA72024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.