BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Bobwhite In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGrassland birds

Northern Bobwhite in Central Hardwoods has collapsed: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-85%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Bobwhite has collapsed in Central Hardwoods: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Bobwhite In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 5.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±92.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 5.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.007.1
20260.000.007.1
20270.000.007.1
20280.000.007.1
20290.000.007.1

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cole CampMISSOURI601990
BoxvilleKENTUCKY441983
NewberryINDIANA432024
WashingtonINDIANA272024
HudsonKENTUCKY272024
Daniel BooneKENTUCKY271988
BrownvilleILLINOIS232024
Brnt PrairieILLINOIS222024
ClementineMISSOURI222002
BirdsILLINOIS192024
BrazilINDIANA192024
FultonARKANSAS172024
RiverqueenKENTUCKY172024
WhitewaterMISSOURI162024
KeysburgKENTUCKY152024
CentertownMISSOURI152024
Indian SpgsINDIANA142024
ScottsburgINDIANA142024
Cedar GroveKENTUCKY142024
GatewoodKENTUCKY142019
New PhilaINDIANA132024
DelwoodILLINOIS122024
Sulphur LickKENTUCKY122024
SwedenMISSOURI122024
HillsboroALABAMA111996

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.