BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Bobwhite In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGrassland birds

Northern Bobwhite in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-75%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
263Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Bobwhite has fallen sharply in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Bobwhite In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 67% by 2029 — from 8.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-67%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 67% by 2029 — from 8.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.80.0013
20264.20.0013
20273.70.0012
20283.20.0012
20292.70.0011

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BedfordIOWA792018
WalesIOWA792018
ElmoMISSOURI792023
ThrallKANSAS761970
MurdockNEBRASKA712024
BolckowMISSOURI651992
HamiltonMISSOURI621985
College Spgs 2IOWA512023
Sni MillsMISSOURI511990
StetMISSOURI511995
BarclayKANSAS492024
WatsonMISSOURI492024
WarrenMISSOURI481984
HumboldtNEBRASKA462024
NorborneMISSOURI352023
College SpgsIOWA342004
WrefordKANSAS342024
ReeceKANSAS332024
EmdenMISSOURI322024
GreenviewILLINOIS312024
HarveysburgOHIO311996
AthensvilleILLINOIS302024
BelleviewILLINOIS302024
HumboldtKANSAS302022
Gretna 2NEBRASKA302024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.