BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Bobwhite In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGame birds

Northern Bobwhite in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-74%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
264Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Bobwhite has fallen sharply in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Bobwhite In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 74% by 2030 — from 9.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-74%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 74% by 2030 — from 9.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.60.0013
20274.10.0012
20283.60.0012
20293.10.0011
20302.60.0011

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
College Spgs 2IOWA1042025
MurdockNEBRASKA882025
ThrallKANSAS761970
BarclayKANSAS652025
BolckowMISSOURI651992
HamiltonMISSOURI621985
New HamptonMISSOURI572025
Sni MillsMISSOURI511990
StetMISSOURI511995
WarrenMISSOURI481984
McfallMISSOURI482025
GalesburgKANSAS472025
HumboldtNEBRASKA462025
ElmoMISSOURI452025
ReeceKANSAS442025
CameronMISSOURI402025
GreenviewILLINOIS392025
TrentonMISSOURI372025
NorborneMISSOURI352023
College SpgsIOWA342004
WalesIOWA342025
WrefordKANSAS342024
FrankfordMISSOURI342025
Gretna 2NEBRASKA342025
EmdenMISSOURI322024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.