BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Bobwhite In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGrassland birds

Northern Bobwhite in Shortgrass Prairie has held roughly steady: up 8% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+8%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Bobwhite in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Northern Bobwhite In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 5.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 0.52–7.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.52–7.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 5.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 0.52–7.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.10.477.7
20264.10.487.7
20274.10.497.7
20284.10.517.8
20294.10.527.8

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SkellytownTEXAS1292024
PlainsTEXAS482024
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA472024
HookerOKLAHOMA382024
MiamiTEXAS282024
PlymellKANSAS252024
PlainsTEXAS242017
PostTEXAS182024
ChanningTEXAS182018
TenmileTEXAS182023
ClovisNEW-MEXICO152024
LamesaTEXAS142024
FrionaTEXAS142024
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO121997
LakinKANSAS122022
KeyesOKLAHOMA112024
PaxtonNEBRASKA102016
FeltOKLAHOMA102024
ClaytonvilleTEXAS92022
FloydadaTEXAS82024
UlyssesKANSAS72024
PantexTEXAS72024
PanhandleTEXAS72024
HardestyOKLAHOMA62024
GruverTEXAS62024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.