BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Bobwhite In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGame birds

Northern Bobwhite in Shortgrass Prairie has edged up: up 20% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+20%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Bobwhite in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Northern Bobwhite In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 5.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 0.67–7.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.67–7.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 5.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 0.67–7.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.20.617.8
20274.20.627.9
20284.30.647.9
20294.30.657.9
20304.30.677.9

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA762025
SkellytownTEXAS702025
MiamiTEXAS502025
PlymellKANSAS382025
HookerOKLAHOMA292025
PlainsTEXAS292025
PlainsTEXAS242017
TwichellTEXAS222025
PostTEXAS182024
ChanningTEXAS182018
TenmileTEXAS182023
UlyssesKANSAS152025
ClovisNEW-MEXICO152024
FrionaTEXAS152025
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO121997
EdlerCOLORADO122025
Fort MorganCOLORADO122025
LakinKANSAS122022
PanhandleTEXAS122025
CampoCOLORADO112025
KeyesOKLAHOMA112024
LamesaTEXAS112025
PaxtonNEBRASKA102016
FeltOKLAHOMA102024
ClaytonvilleTEXAS92022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.