BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Bobwhite In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGrassland birds

Northern Bobwhite in Badlands and Prairies has collapsed: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-81%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
20YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Bobwhite has collapsed in Badlands and Prairies: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Northern Bobwhite In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±90.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.000.08
20260.020.000.08
20270.020.000.08
20280.020.000.08
20290.020.000.08

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RosebudSOUTH-DAKOTA41973
CrookstonNEBRASKA12024
ChamberlainSOUTH-DAKOTA11968
WinnerSOUTH-DAKOTA12019
RockyfordSOUTH-DAKOTA11973
DwyerWYOMING11994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.