BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Bobwhite In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGrassland birds

Northern Bobwhite in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has collapsed: down 99% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-99%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Bobwhite has collapsed in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: down 99% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Bobwhite In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4717.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4717.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4717.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.001.5
20260.000.001.5
20270.000.001.5
20280.000.001.5
20290.000.001.5

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
StrongsvilleOHIO91976
New SomersetOHIO41993
TeeplevillePENNSYLVANIA41992
WaylandOHIO32001
MacdougallNEW-YORK21995
ClintonNEW-YORK21993
ArgyleNEW-YORK21977
RhinebeckNEW-YORK11996
RomulusNEW-YORK11972
TrumansburgNEW-YORK11992
OrleansNEW-YORK11980
RushvilleNEW-YORK12010
BranchportNEW-YORK11995
Canadice LNEW-YORK11989
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK12003
HamburgNEW-YORK11970
West SenecaNEW-YORK11998
St JohnsburgNEW-YORK12002
E YoungstownNEW-YORK11993
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK11977
Alder CreekNEW-YORK11976
SalemNEW-YORK11976
North EastonNEW-YORK12011
OgdensburgNEW-YORK11987
PittsfieldOHIO12010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.