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Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Bobwhite In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionGrassland birds

Northern Bobwhite in Boreal Hardwood Transition has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

-39%Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
20YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Bobwhite in Boreal Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Northern Bobwhite In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2024TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2024 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±65.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762024
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20200.020.000.04
20210.020.000.04
20220.020.000.04
20230.020.000.04
20240.020.000.04

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OberlinMICHIGAN21992
Rib LakeWISCONSIN21978
Washington IWISCONSIN22019
CunardMICHIGAN12005
Lake CityMICHIGAN11985
PickfordMICHIGAN11999
SkeelsMICHIGAN12003
CathroMICHIGAN11976
Sand LakeMICHIGAN11986
BigforkMINNESOTA12011
Union TwpWISCONSIN11976
CouderayWISCONSIN11985
GilmanWISCONSIN12008
McnaughtonWISCONSIN11997
WausaukeeWISCONSIN12008
RhinelanderWISCONSIN11998

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.