BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Neotropic Cormorant In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesWetland birds

Neotropic Cormorant in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 361% on the route-weighted index since 2005.

+361%Since 2005TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
19YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Neotropic Cormorant has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 361% on the route-weighted index since 2005.

Neotropic Cormorant In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Neotropic Cormorant in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 0.55 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.00–0.62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±93.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-46%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.30Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±93.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Neotropic Cormorant in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 0.55 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.00–0.62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±93.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.270.000.59
20270.280.000.60
20280.280.000.60
20290.290.000.61
20300.300.000.62

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Neotropic Cormorant in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BonnerTEXAS182025
CampbelltonTEXAS102016
SadlerTEXAS72025
Massey LakeTEXAS22025
RhomeTEXAS22021
SeldenTEXAS12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.