BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Nelson's Sparrow In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWetland birds

Nelson's Sparrow in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 339% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+339%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Nelson's Sparrow in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Nelson's Sparrow In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Nelson's Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 33% by 2030 — from 0.20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.09–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+33%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.27Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–0.4595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±85.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Nelson's Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 33% by 2030 — from 0.20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.09–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.260.070.44
20270.260.080.44
20280.260.080.44
20290.270.080.45
20300.270.090.45

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Nelson's Sparrow in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA62025
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA42025
BeltramiMINNESOTA32001
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA32024
BowesmontNORTH-DAKOTA21977
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA22009
WebsterNORTH-DAKOTA22012
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA22000
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA22022
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA22023
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA22023
GlyndonMINNESOTA12007
WylieMINNESOTA11981
ErieMINNESOTA11996
GryglaMINNESOTA11979
BadgerMINNESOTA12000
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA11979
LockhartMINNESOTA12025
MaltaMONTANA12016
RedstoneMONTANA12023
WestbyMONTANA12025
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA12021
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA11967
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA12021
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA12013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.