BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Nelson's Sparrow In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Nelson's Sparrow in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 349% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+349%Since 1970
45Routes In Region
52Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Nelson's Sparrow has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 349% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Nelson's Sparrow in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 113% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.09–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±157.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+113%Change by 2029
0.27Projected 2029 index
0.09–0.4595% range
±157.3%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.260.070.44
20260.260.080.44
20270.260.080.45
20280.270.080.45
20290.270.090.45

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Nelson's Sparrow in Prairie Potholes.
WestbyMONTANA42023
BeltramiMINNESOTA32001
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA32024
WimbledonNORTH-DAKOTA32022
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA32024
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA22022
BowesmontNORTH-DAKOTA21977
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA22009
WebsterNORTH-DAKOTA22012
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA22000
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA22022
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA22022
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA22023
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA22023
GlyndonMINNESOTA12007
WylieMINNESOTA11981
ErieMINNESOTA11996
GryglaMINNESOTA11979
BadgerMINNESOTA12000
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA11979
MaltaMONTANA12016
RedstoneMONTANA12023
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA12021
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA11967
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.