BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mourning Dove In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 220% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+220%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mourning Dove has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 220% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Mourning Dove In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 57 in 2024 to a central estimate of 64 (95% range 44–85). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
44–8595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 57 in 2024 to a central estimate of 64 (95% range 44–85). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025624182
2026624283
2027634284
2028644384
2029644485

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS2492024
Oyster LakeTEXAS1152024
ChinquapinTEXAS1002024
Goliad PrairieTEXAS932016
IndianolaTEXAS882024
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS802023
Lag AtascosaTEXAS742024
McfaddinTEXAS732016
Rock IslandTEXAS702024
San PedroTEXAS692023
Moon Lake 2TEXAS602024
MauriceLOUISIANA592024
Loyola BeachTEXAS542009
Ltl Chenier 2LOUISIANA502011
WinnieTEXAS492024
StowellTEXAS492023
Bayside 3TEXAS442024
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA432024
KatyTEXAS432024
BaysideTEXAS432010
JuniorLOUISIANA361991
KaplanLOUISIANA362023
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA342024
LafitteLOUISIANA301991
Port AcresTEXAS302024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.