BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mourning Dove In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 251% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+251%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mourning Dove has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 251% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Mourning Dove In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 16% by 2030 — from 56 in 2025 to a central estimate of 65 (95% range 44–85). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
44–8595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 16% by 2030 — from 56 in 2025 to a central estimate of 65 (95% range 44–85). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026624182
2027634283
2028634384
2029644384
2030654485

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS2242025
Bayside 3TEXAS1102025
Goliad PrairieTEXAS932016
IndianolaTEXAS882024
ChinquapinTEXAS782025
Oyster LakeTEXAS782025
Rock IslandTEXAS762025
McfaddinTEXAS732016
WinnieTEXAS702025
Lag AtascosaTEXAS662025
San PedroTEXAS622025
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS612025
MauriceLOUISIANA592024
Loyola BeachTEXAS542009
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA502025
Ltl Chenier 2LOUISIANA502011
StowellTEXAS442025
BaysideTEXAS432010
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA372025
DanburyTEXAS372025
JuniorLOUISIANA361991
KaplanLOUISIANA362023
KatyTEXAS352025
Forked IslandLOUISIANA342025
Hinkles FerTEXAS342025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.