BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mourning Dove In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Sierra Madre Occidental has declined: down 31% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-31%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Mourning Dove In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 44% by 2030 — from 27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 0.00–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-44%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 44% by 2030 — from 27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 0.00–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026170.0038
2027170.0038
2028160.0037
2029160.0037
2030150.0036

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Skull Valley 2ARIZONA752025
Bartlett ResARIZONA632025
RedingtonARIZONA542025
ReserveNEW-MEXICO522025
McnealARIZONA482025
WilliamsARIZONA462025
AlpineARIZONA452025
Skull ValleyARIZONA422024
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA422025
SprucedaleARIZONA422025
Mormon LakeARIZONA361975
PatagoniaARIZONA362025
San SimonARIZONA332024
CutterARIZONA292014
Happy JackARIZONA282025
SunizonaARIZONA241997
PinetopARIZONA232022
Clay SpringARIZONA232025
AmadoARIZONA222025
DragoonARIZONA222009
PomereneARIZONA192025
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO192025
PortalARIZONA182025
Sunizona 2ARIZONA172025
RuckerARIZONA162009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.