BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mourning Dove In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Sierra Madre Occidental has declined: down 26% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-26%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 49% by 2029 — from 29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 0.00–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-49%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 49% by 2029 — from 29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 0.00–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025170.0038
2026160.0038
2027160.0037
2028150.0036
2029150.0036

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bartlett ResARIZONA752024
Happy JackARIZONA632024
Forest LakesARIZONA482024
McnealARIZONA482024
PomereneARIZONA452024
AmadoARIZONA452023
Skull ValleyARIZONA422024
Mormon LakeARIZONA361975
San SimonARIZONA332024
PatagoniaARIZONA332024
CutterARIZONA292014
ReserveNEW-MEXICO282023
PrescottARIZONA262022
SunizonaARIZONA241997
RedingtonARIZONA242023
PinetopARIZONA232022
Clay SpringARIZONA222024
DragoonARIZONA222009
Sunizona 2ARIZONA212024
PortalARIZONA202024
Carr MtnARIZONA182024
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA172021
RuckerARIZONA162009
FlagstaffARIZONA152022
SahuaritaARIZONA142024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.