BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mourning Dove In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has declined: down 28% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-28%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. See the full index history below.

Mourning Dove In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 38% by 2030 — from 20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 28 (95% range 0.00–60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+38%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 38% by 2030 — from 20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 28 (95% range 0.00–60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026300.0062
2027300.0062
2028290.0061
2029290.0060
2030280.0060

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Palo VerdeARIZONA1542013
Cactus ForestARIZONA1532025
CoolidgeARIZONA1511985
Alamo RiverCALIFORNIA1402018
Joshua TreeCALIFORNIA1362002
NeedlesCALIFORNIA1101973
HopeARIZONA1052009
GlamisCALIFORNIA1022018
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA962010
Red Rock 2ARIZONA922024
Palo Verde 2ARIZONA812025
NilandCALIFORNIA812025
WickenburgARIZONA612023
New RiverARIZONA532016
Ajo 2ARIZONA522022
AjoARIZONA462008
Joshua Tree 2CALIFORNIA442025
FlorenceARIZONA421988
PisinimoARIZONA411993
ArabyARIZONA362023
Parker DamCALIFORNIA362007
Hope 2ARIZONA332019
LukevilleARIZONA301981
OnyxCALIFORNIA282015
Cibola LakeARIZONA272024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.