BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mourning Dove In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has edged down: down 23% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-23%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 29 (95% range 0.00–62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 29 (95% range 0.00–62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025320.0064
2026310.0063
2027300.0063
2028300.0062
2029290.0062

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cactus ForestARIZONA1652024
Palo VerdeARIZONA1542013
CoolidgeARIZONA1511985
Alamo RiverCALIFORNIA1402018
Joshua TreeCALIFORNIA1362002
NeedlesCALIFORNIA1101973
HopeARIZONA1052009
GlamisCALIFORNIA1022018
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA962010
Red Rock 2ARIZONA922024
WickenburgARIZONA612023
NelsonNEVADA612024
Joshua Tree 2CALIFORNIA602016
New RiverARIZONA532016
Ajo 2ARIZONA522022
Cabeza PrietARIZONA492024
AjoARIZONA462008
AntaresARIZONA432024
FlorenceARIZONA421988
PisinimoARIZONA411993
NilandCALIFORNIA402024
Palo Verde 2ARIZONA392024
QuartzsiteARIZONA382024
ArabyARIZONA362023
Parker DamCALIFORNIA362007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.