BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mourning Dove In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Coastal California has held roughly steady: down 2% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-2%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
121Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in Coastal California. See the full index history below.

Mourning Dove In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Coastal California is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 40 in 2024 to a central estimate of 28 (95% range 17–40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
17–4095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Coastal California is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 40 in 2024 to a central estimate of 28 (95% range 17–40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025291840
2026291840
2027291840
2028291740
2029281740

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HughsonCALIFORNIA4852024
Tres Pinos 2CALIFORNIA1082011
OrlandCALIFORNIA1072022
White RiverCALIFORNIA1061992
Harbor LakeCALIFORNIA1041991
ParkfieldCALIFORNIA932024
AtwaterCALIFORNIA882012
AthloneCALIFORNIA762007
TranquillityCALIFORNIA732024
CoalingaCALIFORNIA712022
OilfieldsCALIFORNIA702013
CaruthersCALIFORNIA681987
AdelaidaCALIFORNIA622024
Red BluffCALIFORNIA602024
PenningtonCALIFORNIA602024
CrestonCALIFORNIA582024
SangerCALIFORNIA572024
GlennCALIFORNIA552023
BakersfieldCALIFORNIA532023
Orange CoveCALIFORNIA532016
Lake BerryessaCALIFORNIA522024
Yolla BollyCALIFORNIA522024
Yokohl ValCALIFORNIA511997
Santa Cruz ICALIFORNIA481988
Collegeville 2CALIFORNIA482023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.