BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mourning Dove In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Peninsular Florida has surged: up 153% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+153%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mourning Dove has surged in Peninsular Florida: up 153% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 34 in 2024 to a central estimate of 45 (95% range 25–65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+33%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
25–6595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 34 in 2024 to a central estimate of 45 (95% range 25–65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025442464
2026442464
2027442564
2028452565
2029452565

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
St LucieFLORIDA1772024
KendallFLORIDA1211991
SebastianFLORIDA951992
Ridge HarborFLORIDA912024
AlturasFLORIDA751986
GardnerFLORIDA751999
IndiantownFLORIDA742017
Shawano 2FLORIDA742011
Myakka HeadFLORIDA732011
San AntonioFLORIDA622024
Lake BuffumFLORIDA592024
BrowardFLORIDA571973
CitrusFLORIDA542024
ScottsmoorFLORIDA482024
ShawanoFLORIDA472002
Mt. OliveFLORIDA472024
Dupuis W.E.AFLORIDA452024
ChildsFLORIDA442022
Devils GardnFLORIDA412024
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA402024
Boca RatonFLORIDA401994
MicanopyFLORIDA391991
Dale MabryFLORIDA391988
Sugarloaf KeyFLORIDA392004
BelmoreFLORIDA382024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.