BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mourning Dove In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has edged down: down 20% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-20%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

Mourning Dove In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 19% by 2030 — from 40 in 2025 to a central estimate of 47 (95% range 29–65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
29–6595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 19% by 2030 — from 40 in 2025 to a central estimate of 47 (95% range 29–65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026472965
2027472965
2028472965
2029472965
2030472965

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BrousvilleLOUISIANA1992025
PawpawTENNESSEE1142012
KelsoARKANSAS1012016
MayflowerLOUISIANA972025
Tchula 2MISSISSIPPI971994
TchulaMISSISSIPPI951975
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI932025
BlodgettMISSOURI902025
Augusta 2ARKANSAS782016
FloydLOUISIANA762021
AugustaARKANSAS732001
ShelbyMISSISSIPPI692025
Tchula 3MISSISSIPPI682025
CommerceMISSISSIPPI671993
KennettMISSOURI632025
HaytiMISSOURI632021
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA622025
TippoMISSISSIPPI552025
WintervilleMISSISSIPPI542011
Rayville 2LOUISIANA522025
FrogmoreLOUISIANA502025
RayvilleLOUISIANA492008
IsolaMISSISSIPPI492022
SaffellARKANSAS482019
DelhiLOUISIANA462021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.