BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mourning Dove In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has declined: down 26% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-26%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 48 (95% range 30–66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
30–6695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 48 (95% range 30–66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025483066
2026483066
2027483066
2028483066
2029483066

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PawpawTENNESSEE1142012
KelsoARKANSAS1012016
Tchula 2MISSISSIPPI971994
TchulaMISSISSIPPI951975
MayflowerLOUISIANA932024
BlodgettMISSOURI932024
Augusta 2ARKANSAS782016
FloydLOUISIANA762021
AugustaARKANSAS732001
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI702024
CommerceMISSISSIPPI671993
KennettMISSOURI662024
HaytiMISSOURI632021
MaynardARKANSAS622024
ShelbyMISSISSIPPI612024
BrousvilleLOUISIANA592024
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA542024
WintervilleMISSISSIPPI542011
TippoMISSISSIPPI512024
RayvilleLOUISIANA492008
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA492022
IsolaMISSISSIPPI492022
SaffellARKANSAS482019
DelhiLOUISIANA462021
ShawLOUISIANA442024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.