BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mourning Dove In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasGeneralists

Mourning Dove in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has edged down: down 25% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-25%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
110Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 16 (95% range 11–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 16 (95% range 11–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025161122
2026161122
2027161122
2028161122
2029161122

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Mourning Dove in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CaledoniaTEXAS502024
AthensTEXAS492024
SandbluffOKLAHOMA471995
DibollTEXAS442024
ChandlerTEXAS422004
PocolaOKLAHOMA402016
Mer RougeLOUISIANA382008
TroutLOUISIANA362024
Burr FerryLOUISIANA362024
MatoyOKLAHOMA342000
ClayLOUISIANA332024
WechesTEXAS332024
Flat CreekLOUISIANA312024
EnterpriseLOUISIANA312024
SmyrnaTEXAS302010
MortonTEXAS292024
IndianolaOKLAHOMA272024
EastonTEXAS272013
Big Sandy BithTEXAS272024
LockesburgARKANSAS262019
MarionLOUISIANA251996
PhillipsOKLAHOMA252008
Powell Park 2TEXAS252024
Easton 2TEXAS252024
NanceARKANSAS242024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.