BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mourning Dove In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Prairie Hardwood Transition has increased: up 48% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+48%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 37 (95% range 29–45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
29–4595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 37 (95% range 29–45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025372845
2026372945
2027372945
2028372945
2029372945

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BismarkOHIO1011995
PardeevilleWISCONSIN722024
NapoleonOHIO712024
ParisWISCONSIN712024
JuniataMICHIGAN642024
PackertownINDIANA632004
N AndoverWISCONSIN632024
BeloitWISCONSIN632024
WiotaWISCONSIN612024
HoltMICHIGAN602024
Lake GalenaILLINOIS592021
LapeerMICHIGAN572024
LawrenceMICHIGAN552024
North BranchMICHIGAN551999
N FreedomWISCONSIN552024
Packertown 2INDIANA542024
Bell Oak 2MICHIGAN542023
SaxevilleWISCONSIN542024
Cherry ValILLINOIS532003
TrempealeauWISCONSIN532024
Fall RiverWISCONSIN522024
PrincetonWISCONSIN512024
RichmondMICHIGAN492024
ClintonvilleWISCONSIN482024
EdenWISCONSIN482024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.