BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mourning Dove In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has edged down: down 12% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-12%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
130Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Mourning Dove In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 77 in 2024 to a central estimate of 68 (95% range 47–90). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
47–9095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 77 in 2024 to a central estimate of 68 (95% range 47–90). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025704892
2026704891
2027694891
2028694790
2029684790

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CovertKANSAS2562024
CoopertonOKLAHOMA2152024
BookerTEXAS1952024
HunterOKLAHOMA1892024
ArthurNEBRASKA1782024
KanopolisKANSAS1762024
ColdwaterKANSAS1682022
BrownleeNEBRASKA1602024
Ash ValleyKANSAS1542019
WeinertTEXAS1531994
SusankKANSAS1492022
AlbertKANSAS1462024
Beloit 2KANSAS1432018
StrattonNEBRASKA1382024
SolomonKANSAS1342019
RosstonOKLAHOMA1222018
HaysKANSAS1212014
BartleyNEBRASKA1162024
PhillipsburgKANSAS1152022
LoganKANSAS1152022
GoveKANSAS1112022
Pear ValleyTEXAS1112024
LeovilleKANSAS1092018
RinggoldNEBRASKA1082024
HendleyNEBRASKA1082024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.