BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mourning Dove In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has held roughly steady: down 3% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-3%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
130Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Mourning Dove In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 81 in 2025 to a central estimate of 69 (95% range 47–90). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
47–9095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 81 in 2025 to a central estimate of 69 (95% range 47–90). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026704992
2027704891
2028694891
2029694791
2030694790

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CovertKANSAS2632025
KanopolisKANSAS1982025
HunterOKLAHOMA1892024
BookerTEXAS1872025
AlbertKANSAS1792025
ColdwaterKANSAS1682022
GordonNEBRASKA1582025
Ash ValleyKANSAS1542019
WeinertTEXAS1531994
SusankKANSAS1492022
Beloit 2KANSAS1432018
ArthurNEBRASKA1412025
DaltonKANSAS1362025
WilliamsTEXAS1322025
CulbertsonNEBRASKA1282025
BradyNEBRASKA1272025
CoopertonOKLAHOMA1242025
RosstonOKLAHOMA1222018
HaysKANSAS1212014
RinggoldNEBRASKA1212025
LookoutOKLAHOMA1212025
Swan LakeNEBRASKA1162025
MaxwellNEBRASKA1162025
GoveKANSAS1112022
LeovilleKANSAS1092018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.