BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mourning Dove In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Shortgrass Prairie has increased: up 41% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+41%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
137Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Mourning Dove In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 68 (95% range 51–86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
51–8695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 68 (95% range 51–86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025685086
2026685086
2027685186
2028685186
2029685186

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HookerOKLAHOMA4422024
Hay SpringsNEBRASKA2342024
Prospect ValCOLORADO2312000
BrownsonNEBRASKA2082021
HardestyOKLAHOMA1842024
PantexTEXAS1732024
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA1682024
ChugwaterWYOMING1602024
DaltonNEBRASKA1552024
GruverTEXAS1492024
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO1441997
Wildhorse LCOLORADO1312024
WakaTEXAS1272024
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA1242024
LimonCOLORADO1232024
PecosTEXAS1212017
BennettCOLORADO1132018
RuletonKANSAS1132022
Prospect Valley 2COLORADO1112023
HobbsNEW-MEXICO1102024
Murray LakeNEBRASKA1062024
Adams Co.COLORADO1052022
ClaytonvilleTEXAS1042022
BereaNEBRASKA952019
TexlineTEXAS932024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.