BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mourning Dove In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Shortgrass Prairie has risen sharply: up 55% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+55%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
137Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mourning Dove has risen sharply in Shortgrass Prairie: up 55% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Mourning Dove In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 79 in 2025 to a central estimate of 69 (95% range 52–87). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
52–8795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 79 in 2025 to a central estimate of 69 (95% range 52–87). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026695187
2027695187
2028695187
2029695287
2030695287

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HookerOKLAHOMA4142025
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA2522025
Prospect ValCOLORADO2312000
DaltonNEBRASKA2162025
BereaNEBRASKA2112025
HardestyOKLAHOMA1842024
Hay SpringsNEBRASKA1792025
ChugwaterWYOMING1602024
Wildhorse LCOLORADO1582025
PantexTEXAS1572025
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO1441997
TwichellTEXAS1432025
EdlerCOLORADO1362025
BriggsdaleCOLORADO1302025
KimballNEBRASKA1262025
DalhartTEXAS1232025
PecosTEXAS1212017
GruverTEXAS1192025
CrawfordNEBRASKA1172025
FlaglerCOLORADO1152025
LamesaTEXAS1152025
RuletonKANSAS1132022
Prospect Valley 2COLORADO1122025
FlemingCOLORADO1092025
Adams Co.COLORADO1052022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.