BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mourning Dove In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has declined: down 34% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-34%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
241Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau. See the full index history below.

Mourning Dove In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 49% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.3 (95% range 0.09–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-49%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 49% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.3 (95% range 0.09–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.21.013
20267.00.7913
20276.80.5613
20286.50.3313
20296.30.0913

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FruitaCOLORADO932007
JensenUTAH862024
Mcphee Res.COLORADO742024
BlandingUTAH722024
Douglas PassCOLORADO582024
WalsenburgCOLORADO582024
Wray GulchCOLORADO572023
MountainairNEW-MEXICO542024
MoscaCOLORADO482024
House RockARIZONA472022
DinosaurCOLORADO432024
HatchUTAH432024
ValenciaNEW-MEXICO411997
WestwaterUTAH412024
Pleasant ViewCOLORADO392021
AntonitoCOLORADO382004
Rose WellsARIZONA341978
EscalanteUTAH332024
NuclaCOLORADO322024
CokedaleCOLORADO302024
YampaiARIZONA291977
De BequeCOLORADO292024
BasinCOLORADO292024
NageesiNEW-MEXICO292024
MoffatCOLORADO282024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.