BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mourning Dove In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has declined: down 34% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-34%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
242Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau. See the full index history below.

Mourning Dove In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 37% by 2030 — from 10.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.3 (95% range 0.10–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-37%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 37% by 2030 — from 10.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.3 (95% range 0.10–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.21.013
20277.00.7813
20286.70.5513
20296.50.3313
20306.30.1012

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FruitaCOLORADO932007
BlandingUTAH732025
Douglas PassCOLORADO582024
MountainairNEW-MEXICO542024
House RockARIZONA472022
DinosaurCOLORADO462025
HatchUTAH422025
ValenciaNEW-MEXICO411997
FayetteUTAH402025
ToroweapARIZONA392025
Pleasant ViewCOLORADO392021
MonticelloUTAH392025
AntonitoCOLORADO382004
DulceNEW-MEXICO362025
Rose WellsARIZONA341978
McgaffeyNEW-MEXICO342025
GallinasNEW-MEXICO312025
YampaiARIZONA291977
Wray GulchCOLORADO292025
La PlataNEW-MEXICO282013
Fence LakeNEW-MEXICO272025
JensenUTAH272025
Blackhead PkCOLORADO262025
WalsenburgCOLORADO262025
NuclaCOLORADO262025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.