BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mourning Dove In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Sierra Nevada has held roughly steady: down 9% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-9%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in Sierra Nevada. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 5.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 0.00–8.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 5.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 0.00–8.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.80.008.2
20263.70.008.1
20273.60.008.1
20283.60.008.0
20293.50.008.0

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GeneseeCALIFORNIA202024
PaxtonCALIFORNIA192024
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA182024
Bass LakeCALIFORNIA142019
Greenhorn MtCALIFORNIA132008
Kings CanyonCALIFORNIA122016
CoultervilleCALIFORNIA112019
ChilcootCALIFORNIA102024
KernvilleCALIFORNIA92008
SattleyCALIFORNIA82024
Higgins CornCALIFORNIA62024
Meadow ValleyCALIFORNIA62021
Hat CreekCALIFORNIA52018
Little TruckeeCALIFORNIA52023
Cottage SpgsCALIFORNIA41975
Silver CityCALIFORNIA42013
Forest HillCALIFORNIA42022
WawonaCALIFORNIA32024
CrestviewCALIFORNIA32024
Last ChanceCALIFORNIA32019
Lassen ParkCALIFORNIA21974
WestvilleCALIFORNIA22022
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA22024
Tahoe NfCALIFORNIA21994
GoumazCALIFORNIA22011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.