BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mourning Dove In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Sierra Nevada has increased: up 29% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+29%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mourning Dove in Sierra Nevada. See the full index history below.

Mourning Dove In Sierra Nevada Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 60% by 2030 — from 9.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 0.00–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-60%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 60% by 2030 — from 9.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 0.00–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.10.008.8
20274.10.008.8
20284.10.008.7
20294.00.008.7
20304.00.008.6

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA612025
PaxtonCALIFORNIA242025
GeneseeCALIFORNIA202024
Forest HillCALIFORNIA202025
Higgins CornCALIFORNIA192025
Little TruckeeCALIFORNIA162025
Bass LakeCALIFORNIA142019
Greenhorn MtCALIFORNIA132008
Kings CanyonCALIFORNIA122016
CoultervilleCALIFORNIA112019
ChilcootCALIFORNIA102024
KernvilleCALIFORNIA92008
Tuolumne GroveCALIFORNIA62025
CrestviewCALIFORNIA62025
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA52025
SattleyCALIFORNIA52025
Hat CreekCALIFORNIA52018
Cottage SpgsCALIFORNIA41975
Silver CityCALIFORNIA42013
WestvilleCALIFORNIA32025
WawonaCALIFORNIA32025
Last ChanceCALIFORNIA32019
Lassen ParkCALIFORNIA21974
LumberyardCALIFORNIA22025
DownievilleCALIFORNIA22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.