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Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mourning Dove In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 588% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+588%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
141Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mourning Dove has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 588% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 43% by 2029 — from 9.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 8.3–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+43%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.3–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 43% by 2029 — from 9.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 8.3–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025137.719
2026137.919
2027148.019
2028148.219
2029148.319

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CheshireMASSACHUSETTS411994
East TroyMAINE312019
BrooksMAINE302019
FletcherVERMONT302024
HarmonyMAINE282024
Bowdoin CtrMAINE242021
WarrenMAINE241990
New HartfordCONNECTICUT221987
ManchesterMAINE221995
HudsonMAINE222016
CornvilleMAINE222024
CanterburyNEW-HAMPSHIRE222024
WashburnMAINE212005
FitzwilliamNEW-HAMPSHIRE212024
Turner 2MAINE192024
SearsportMAINE192024
WestbrookMAINE182024
N OrangeMASSACHUSETTS182024
ChesterfieldMASSACHUSETTS182024
ConcordNEW-HAMPSHIRE182024
CastineMAINE162006
RomeMAINE162024
Church HillMAINE162017
MarlowNEW-HAMPSHIRE162024
Otisfield GrMAINE152015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.