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Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mourning Dove In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestGeneralists

Mourning Dove in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 579% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+579%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
141Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mourning Dove has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 579% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Mourning Dove In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 62% by 2030 — from 8.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 8.1–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+62%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.1–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mourning Dove in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 62% by 2030 — from 8.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 8.1–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026137.519
2027137.719
2028137.819
2029147.919
2030148.119

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Mourning Dove in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CheshireMASSACHUSETTS411994
BrooksMAINE332021
East TroyMAINE292021
N OrangeMASSACHUSETTS272025
ChesterfieldMASSACHUSETTS272025
Turner 2MAINE252025
Bowdoin CtrMAINE242021
WarrenMAINE241990
CornvilleMAINE242025
New HartfordCONNECTICUT221987
ManchesterMAINE221995
HudsonMAINE222016
CanterburyNEW-HAMPSHIRE222025
HermonMAINE212021
WashburnMAINE212005
WestbrookMAINE182024
FitzwilliamNEW-HAMPSHIRE182025
MarlowNEW-HAMPSHIRE182025
HarmonyMAINE172025
HancockMAINE172025
SearsportMAINE172025
GaysvilleVERMONT172025
FletcherVERMONT172025
CastineMAINE162006
RomeMAINE162024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.